Thursday, June 26, 2008


Regression To The Mean

PLO8 no good (don't start me off about what happened in that one), and single tables no good either. As it happens I just can't play too many of the latter without wanting to go on a killing spree, what with the whining about saving chips and making deals interspersed with losing every single pre-flop allin. This leaves me 1/15 in the tournaments and 1/17 in the single tables ; fortunately the latter was a scoop, especially as it was the only one I've managed to get heads up in.

But what kind of a sample is this, really ? Just the MTTs, played 15 at about 5 hours each on average, at a guess, is around 2200 hands. Single tables would be about another 5-600, if that. 3K hands max - it's nothing. That's less than 3 sessions online for me. I'm hardly going to read too much into anything that happens in 3 sessions online, it's just another week.

Even if someone's playing every tournament they can, the sample size is so laughably small that reading anything into it whatsoever seems completely pointless. But of course we have legions of people hanging around whose very job it is to do just that, so it's all Year Of The Pro and what a great series Oleg Bucknoleg is having, etc etc.

Funnily enough this never occurred to me last year, or in Tunica 18 months ago :-). And in fact over the three trips I'm running well above expectation, something like +150% ROI. Which should make me feel a bit better, and I suppose it does. If it wasn't for the fact that the $1500 HORSE and the Limit Shootout (if only for sentimental reasons) are two tournaments I really want to play, I'd change my flight and slope back home, but in the event I'll just hang out for another week and play those, plus Stud 8 tomorrow. I'm not going to miss the ME for a second though, you're all welcome to that one.

I went 32 online MTT's without hitting the money which really messed with my head until I realised I'dplayed next to no hands so basically it meant bugger all.

I guess all we can do is maximise our expectation and leave the rest in the hands of the poker gods (amen)
32?? I spit on your 32. I went 52 S'n'Gs without making the money, many of them single tables. And then I went skint. The moral of this story? Dunno really... go skint, I suppose. And that's about it.
Doesn't the Main Event have the most dead money and hence greatest +EV though?

It probably is the biggest +EV event but I believe that almost everyone over-estimates their main event EV. I don't think that anyone short of the very top players who have some "fear factor" (like Ivey, Doyle, [grits teeth] Hellmuth), has a total expectation better than 3x the buyin.

On top of that the variance is of course off the charts. Most of the events I have played are technically within bankroll, if only just, and as a winning player who relies on poker for my income and really really really doesn't want to have to quit and get a real job again, variance is my worst enemy.

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