Secrets of the Amateurs

Well, it's hotting up in Vegas now and I'm looking forward to playing. Before I do, I should just set out what my goal is here because it's a little bit different, I think, to what most people are doing (if they even go as far as planning it out).

Most people (who aren't being staked, which more and more are every year) are kind of going out there with the attitude that they want to give themselves a chance to win big and strap on that bracelet without doing their bollocks while they're at it. Also, a few people will be going out there with the same mindset that I have had before, for example last year, in that they're just going out there to earn money (which means single-table satellites, smaller tournaments and maybe ignoring the bracelet events entirely). As such, they will be looking to reduce variance as much as they can, whether it's by buying/selling/swapping percentages, by playing satellites to "earn" the entry fee, by playing cash on the side, or whatever.

I'm taking a different tack. I'm basically going out there with $35K (including expenses) which I'm prepared to wave goodbye to. Obviously I'd rather not, but if I have to, I will. While it's all one big pot, it helps me to compartmentalize this a little as the $10K I've won playing WSOP double shootouts on Stars and the $24K I won heads up on Party (60 for first compared to 36 for second), when we were basically level in chips and I found KK v his A7. So I'm taking this money and trying to maximize my chance of spinning it up to $200-300K. As such, I'm not particularly looking to reduce variance (unless we start talking about final tables with prize differentials of more than that).

So don't expect to see me playing $125 single tables and $300 MTTs, profitable though they might be. Basically if I want to grind, I could do that better right here in my front room. Don't be upset or offended if I decline to sell action, swap percentages [1], chop satellites, and so on. It's not necessary for me because I'm not looking to reduce variance. And if I should cash for say $5K somewhere along the line (whether through minor place or $500 STT) then I'll look to spin that up in maybe the $5K short-handed or a $5K at the Bellagio.

So many people give it large about expecting to win or being prepared to win, and so on. Poker doesn't work like that. Saying I expect to lose sounds unduly negative but I am definitely prepared to lose. All of it. It's only internet dollars. In a strange way (or maybe not so strange), this gives me an advantage over anyone who is looking over his shoulder wondering if the ATM will cough up tomorrow.

[1] Although I am happy to do these with people who have obliged me with the same things in the past, I think that's only professional courtesy.