Monday, March 05, 2007


Old School

Check this out. Nic Szeremata has a "dilemma" which he places before the experts. Now, at first I skimmed through this. Nic (with 96K at the start of the hand) makes it 16K with AK and Johnny Lodden raises to 48K. 47 players left, 45 get paid. So I'm thinking, come on, how can you pass this to an aggressive player. Don't be a bubble wuss.

On closer inspection though, Nic was on the button. Now words fail me. You raise with AK on the button and a known aggressive Scandi, perhaps even the very uber-aggressive Scandi, reraises. Anyone who even thinks about passing here simply should not be playing tournaments. Never mind EPT main events.

It's just beyond belief that someone who writes about poker in the national press, who was called as an "expert witness" in the Gutshot trial, could, well, to be extremely charitable maybe he's levelling everyone just to see what the experts say. But I doubt it. And of course we don't know what he actually did. Nonetheless, an "expert" advises him to fold (I don't know this Mick McCloskey) and for my money I think Marcel's wrong too, your hand is so strong that you should encourage anyone to come over the top of you here.

All in all, I really ought to think about playing some of these events.

Surely this is a setup.

Nic is hoping enough players read his dilemma, so that he is ensured action the next time he raises from the button.

Of course this means that he can't be stealing from the button, but he propably wasn't planning to anyway...

Hi Andy

Good stuff as always. I think you are being charitable! The justification from the first guy seems completely wrong-headed.

My ha'pennyworth:

- He uses the fact he is on the bubble as a reason to dump here! Surely you must factor in that Lodden is exploiting this very fact to raise what he perceives as a weak button move. And playing to fold into the money in this position is surely something no pro could reasonably advocate (unless we're talking satellites of course).

- 'He is an underdog to any pocker pair'. Well technically yes but what is Lodden's range here? Anyone who has seen him play knows he could be raising with virtually any two cards here. Making AK a decent favourite even if JL feels pot committed. Plus AK is only dominated by AA, 30% (I think) against even KK and 48%ish against virtually every other PP. Never mind the times AK is dominating and there may be a very small amount of fold equity to factor in (moot point with 3 to 1 odds though).

I'd be interested in other views.

I agree. Anything but shoving here is absolute spew. This bubble shouldn't even really matter [anywhere near as much as the FT bubble] if you are properly bankrolled for the event.
I prefer a raise to 11k or 12k here. That way you are giving the blinds room to re-raise and still get away from the hand if you go all-in. To commit the the hand, Lodden would be forced to make a big over-raise.

As played, he has let Lodden make the committment to the pot, which all but removes the fold equity afforded to the all-in re-re-raise.

Despite this, its a no-brainer all-in for me.

Having said that, I dont play many tournaments these days.
"Nic...makes it 16K with AK"

What were his other two cards?
Has to be a wind up.
Either that or all the poker journalists in Europe have got together and said they should try to encourage more weak/tight players to join the EPT.
I think AQ is a deffo auto-shove here too, anyone disagree?
Insane to even consider folding here.

I like the point of the guy who said raise a little less to give yourself more chance of them folding to your shove assuming they make a raise in line with your original raise.

i'd be a little fucked off with it if i had sattelited in for next to nowt and the bubble was important to me but i still 100% shove.
Mick McCloskey is a player from Northern Ireland who has been around for a long time. He and Nic are probably buddies from way back! And if this isn't a setup, then it just shows that having lots of poker years under your belt doesn't necessarily make you good. If I had to go off on a tangent here, then I could say that I'm fed up of listening to these older blokes discussing strategy amongst themselves at a table as though they are the experts, and being openly dismissive of anybody younger having an opinion. I could go on but you get my point.

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