Monday, July 24, 2006


Signal To Noise

I really have to learn to accept the swings. On this trip, I was $1500 down, then $7500 up, and now $4800 up. All in all it's been a successful trip. But I'm pissed off because I'm on a $3000 downswing. Of course I shouldn't be at all.

The real trap is when you're running good and you think "This is the way it should be. This is how it works when I'm not being outdrawn all the time". In reality though you're outdrawing other people, winning 50/50s and most of all having lots of "hidden luck" by not running into big hands at crucial times. Once you (subconsciously) accept this as the norm, you'll be disappointed, to say the least, when the variance kicks in the other direction.

There's also a more subtle form of annoyance that can arise when you haven't logged many hours in a particular game. For about a month I was running really well in the speed tournaments online. I had only started playing these in a particular style and my rate was so good I was thinking "Excellent. Even allowing for running good, I can make $120 an hour on these". Then a bad run kicks in - I've now gone about 30 with just a couple or three minor cashes. Now my rate has been drastically reduced and instead of thinking "I can make $120 an hour on these forever" it's more like $50 or $60. That's $60 an hour of future earnings I've lost forever. Or that's what it feels like !

In truth, your expected rate in the next tournament or cash session is dependent only on how good the game is and how well you play (of course your actual rate in a short session is dependent mostly on luck). Games can become better or worse surprisingly quickly as some players go broke or leave to play another game, new players come in, and some existing players improve or change their style. You can of course improve your own game or lose some edge through complacency or lack of focus. The next session is the one that counts, in some ways the only one that counts. I've said it before, you'll go mad if you concentrate on the noise at the expense of the signal. But it's so hard to avoid.

Hopefully you're getting it (quietly) back in 1k stud8.

I've read couple of Razz event reports and based on those Stud8 is nice value.

$60 per hour isn't too bad Andy, and if that's with the bad run included you should be laughing...

Not as heartily as on the old rate but still, certainly not shabby.

Even the stud8 has 780 runners ! Time is running out for people. Bracelet Bracelet Bracelet !!

What you said with regards to "hidden luck" just about smashed the head off the nail.

Also "situational luck" is a variant. IE running king monster into prince monster on a scary board.

Alex Martin
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