Thursday, July 20, 2006
The Bloggers' Curse
The bloggers' curse is, of course, whenever you blog about how well a particular game is going, everything starts going wrong instead. I've now played 7 or 8 single tables without a cash. Most of this is, of course, attributable to variance ; a little to "winner's tilt" in the first couple where I just felt invincible and slipped into plays like "I'll reraise this, even if he calls I'll probably outdraw him". That didn't last long of course, and for the last couple of days I've been nose to the grindstone but I still find a different way to bust out every time, I'll spare you the details.
On top of that though, I think the single tables have tightened up quite a bit since the first couple of weeks. I bumped into Rob on my way back and he said the same thing, if your ROI was 80-100% in these things in the first couple of weeks, it's now more like 40-50%. The real fish who couldn't wait to play the WSOP ASAP have done their money and gone home. People still aren't playing particularly well, mostly, and 50% at $225 is more than $100 an hour but it's not quite the money tree it was at the start.
So my forecast of a couple of weeks ago was rather optimistic. I'm now $5300 up on the trip, which is good and I can't complain (as much as I'd like to). Expenses over four weeks though add up to a fair whack. There'll be time enough for counting when the dealing's done, but I think the total nut is going to be around $6K counting spending money so covering for a free holiday would do right now. We'll see. On Sunday I'm moving to the Strip for the last four days and we'll try some MTTs there.
On top of that though, I think the single tables have tightened up quite a bit since the first couple of weeks. I bumped into Rob on my way back and he said the same thing, if your ROI was 80-100% in these things in the first couple of weeks, it's now more like 40-50%. The real fish who couldn't wait to play the WSOP ASAP have done their money and gone home. People still aren't playing particularly well, mostly, and 50% at $225 is more than $100 an hour but it's not quite the money tree it was at the start.
So my forecast of a couple of weeks ago was rather optimistic. I'm now $5300 up on the trip, which is good and I can't complain (as much as I'd like to). Expenses over four weeks though add up to a fair whack. There'll be time enough for counting when the dealing's done, but I think the total nut is going to be around $6K counting spending money so covering for a free holiday would do right now. We'll see. On Sunday I'm moving to the Strip for the last four days and we'll try some MTTs there.
# posted by Andy_Ward @ 11:30 PM 
