Tuesday, July 04, 2006


The Best Way Out Of A Shooting Slump ...

... is to keep shooting. Just ask Frank Lampard. No, wait.

$1500 in the hole is not where I wanted to be after 3 days, but what can you do. I've talked before about drawing a line and starting again all the time, it's bound to stress you. But it's almost impossible to think of it any other way when you've upped sticks half way round the world just to play poker. In the normal course of events a $1500 downswing means nothing, even less considering I'm playing twice as high as I usually do. I'm still $8500 up for the year.

I'll just have to grit my teeth and get on with it. I couldn't be more certain that the games I'm playing are both +EV (considerably so) and within bankroll (ditto). It just feels bad because I don't have many bad beats to hang my hat on, it's been more of a case of cold decks, especially in the single tables. What's the difference though, Queens v Queens and the guy makes a flush [1] or moving in with 53s, being called by AQ and losing. They were both the right play at the time, and in hindsight, and they didn't work out. The rest is noise.

I shall have a day off tomorrow. From tournaments anyway, I'll play some limit online and live if there's a decent game. I can kick back, watch the football and have a massage-no-not-that-kind-of-massage, the games will still be there the day after. I know I should keep shooting, and I will, but that was the plan from the start : 3 or 4 days on, one day off, or I won't want to look at another card after 10 days.

[1] This bad beat story is included strictly for the purpose of making a point. Although it does feel better to write it down.

Don't panic; hit three of the shorter $50 tourneys a day against the real tourists. Reinstate your fold equity.

Then again, what do I know? This is why I play cash. At least I know there's a 65% or thereabouts chance that I'll be up at the end of the day. With tourneys I assume that you get up expecting to lose, which kind of messes up my head.

Oh, and one other tip. When all the money goes in, I find that having the best hand at the end is a good strategy. This is where my tournament play has, in the main, let me down. In 50:50 races over a thousand tournaments I reckon I'm something like 40:60.

See the above post for the kind of fold equity I can achieve at $200. With this going on there's no need to drop to $50 ! I'll just have to tough it out. I'm still down but at least I've got some money in my pocket instead of having to hit the ATM every morning.

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