Tuesday, February 28, 2006


More Gruesome Advice

"When I am completely card-dead, I don’t see the point in risking my chips on a sub-premium hand when my M is around 5. I’d much rather wait a few rounds and push with something better. I’ve found (with an M of 5) that an all-in raise will usually only be called by one person, if at all. If I wait and have good, live cards and an M of 3, I am more likely to win the pot and possibly triple up (or more) since the raise itself is insignificant to the higher stacks."

Wow that's horrible. Nice to see it out there though, and I hope that people will take it on board !

I suppose I should explain why instead of just bitching. Apart from what I've already said throughout this blog, ask yourself this. If I double up with M5, how many will I have ? And if I triple up with M3 ? So why is tripling up with M3 considered better ? Hero is also taking no account of position. There's a world of difference between moving in UTG 9-handed with M5 and moving in two off the button with no one in yet.

As for "good live cards", a hand has to be very good to want more than one opponent all-in. That means better than AK. For example, as I have pointed out before, AK v AJ v 77 is barely +EV. We're talking 33% to treble that M3. Whereas if I move in M5 with K4s and get called by AQ I'm 40% to win. And isn't any hand more likely to be live against one player than two ?

Update : It was only once I had woken up a bit that I noticed the words "if at all". The author seems to think that increasing one's stack by 20% without a showdown is a waste of time. At this point, words fail me.

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