Saturday, October 23, 2004


Thinly Disguised Bad Beat Story

First of all, sorry that the "Secrets of the Amateurs" have remained secret for the last 10 days. I have been very active in the "talking crap" diary instead, and putting the secrets into practice in Party Poker Sit and Goes. Now I have stepped up a level, to $50, and am concentrating on the best games, I'm suddenly making some money. Who'd have thunk it ?

Moving forward, the plan here is to talk through my strategy for winner-take-all satellites. It's easy to isolate concepts when talking about this case because you're not worried about proportional payouts, etc. Every now and then though I'll break off and talk about hands I've been involved in.

Here's a good one from tonight's Prima Poker $100 freezeout. With 666 runners and a $100K guarantee, who cares if it's the work of Satan, there's value to be had ! I'm the middle of the pack with just under 8K chips, blinds 400-800, when this happens. I find QQ on the button yum yum. Early position moves all in for 3200. On the previous hand I made him pass on a low flop, so he could be steaming. Big stack (12K) calls. Moderate stack (5K) calls as well ! Nuts to this, I've seen enough fishy play so far tonight that I'm not going to pass QQ preflop. I'm all in (3 opponents is plenty) call call. In turn we see KJ, AK and AK. Now, KJ is beyond reproach with only 8 SBs and a couple of hands to go, though I wonder if he's only done the right thing through tilt ? First caller AK is OK, although you can make a good argument for reraising. I think it's the second caller who makes the questionable play. If only he had read "Three Way Action" below ! Once I make it 4-way and the cards go over, the probabilities are QQ 66%, AK 12%, AK 12% and KJ 10%. As I say, KJ and the first AK don't know what's lurking behind them but the second AK - it's very marginal. AK loses a lot of value when it can easily be duplicated. QQ isn't subject to this and so is much stronger in this situation. If instead of QQ I find AK with three people already in, two of whom are committed, this is a clear pass IMO !

Would I pass AK in seat 3 in the actual hand ? Possibly. If so, I might be the only online player who would. Anyway, needless to say in the actual hand an Ace flops. There's no justice.

Did you cash out the day of this bad beat?

I have a theory about cashing out and bad beats if you're interested...
Yeah, coz there really is a curse on people who cashout their winnings.

Fucking Twat
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